When is the Top of the Cycle Really the Top?

Forecasting peaks of cycles is notoriously difficult, and while it often feels like we’re reaching the top of the longest expansion period in history, evidence suggests there is still plenty of room to grow.

Equity market tops are often associated with euphoria and overconfidence, when otherwise risk-averse investors finally succumb and buy equities or the trending sector, gradually leaving fewer and fewer new marginal buyers. Tops associated with an individual shock event such as a war or natural disaster can of course materially affect major economic outputs; however, they may be more sudden and therefore don’t require euphoria or overconfidence.

Economies can progress from the second type of top relatively efficiently. The aggregate effects of the trade wars and other geopolitical risks and uncertainties are insufficient to have much of a dampening effect on world output, and stability in relation to some of them (or even a resolution) often only takes a short time. In the interim the application of fiscal and monetary stimulus mitigates near-term effects and businesses take action, such as shifting their supply chains.

We find it hard to argue that the current situation is filled with euphoria and overconfidence. The attempted flight to safety in negative interest rate bonds, the equity market downturn of Q4 2018 and numerous negative sentiment indicators all point to the contrary. Moreover, a swarm of companies have sold bonds of 30-year US corporate debt at record low yields in the last two weeks, as they rush to lock in the low rates.

However, conditions are present for a forthcoming euphoria phase, for example if there is resolution to the trade disputes. In particular, interest rates are artificially low on an absolute basis, coupled with strong employment, the strong consumer and other economic conditions. Moreover, investors are aware of huge gains that have been provided by the markets over the past decade. The past decade of private equity funding exemplifies the easy access to investor capital that has underpinned markets. Strong past gains, risk taking, yield seeking and chasing alternatives to zero and negative interest rates provides ample conditions for a sharp upturn when sentiment turns more positive. Valuations are not the binding constraint in euphoria phases of bull markets’ return chasing.

Overall the various indicia of the current markets and economies do not signal a market top.

Interest rates are already undoubtedly low but Central Banks, and especially the United States Fed, having shifted to an easing bias have scope to reduce further. This is notwithstanding the diminished effectiveness of monetary policy upon slowing economies. Monetary policy easing intensifies asset price risks whilst doing little directly for underlying economies:

  1. A rate cut means the Fed thinks trouble is looming, and doesn’t guarantee to solve it
  2. Low interest rates reduce borrowing costs, increasing demand for bigger purchases such as cars, homes and appliances, and reduces costs on floating rate mortgages, increasing discretionary spending power
  3. Businesses’ cost of capital is likewise reduced, which lowers the hurdle rate to justify investments and encourage spending
  4. Similarly, it reduces the discount rate with which analysts use to value companies’ cash flows. Whilst adjusting your discount rate may not be the most sensible way to value businesses over the long run, consensus valuations are naturally pushed higher in the interim.

Although I cannot forecast the top of the market, it appears that once the current volatility subsides and stimulus action takes effect, we could be left with a clear path to euphoria.

Lachlan Mackay is a Research Analyst with Montaka Global Investments. To learn more about Montaka, please call +612 7202 0100.

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Our Montaka Active Extension strategy strives for maximised return over the long-term. Owning the Montaka long portfolio typically scaled up to approximately 130 percent - and the Montaka short portfolio typically scaled down to approximately 30 percent – this strategy results in a net market exposure of approximately 100 percent most of the time.

Our Montaka variable net strategy strives for significant downside protection – but with minimal upside reduction. Focused on owning the world’s great and growing businesses when they are undervalued, while managing a portfolio of short positions in businesses that are deteriorating, misperceived, and overvalued, this strategy is our flagship long-short

Our Montgomery Global strategy strives to act as a core, high conviction, global portfolio holding. Consistent with the long portfolios in our Montaka strategies, this offering is focused on owning the world’s high quality, undervalued businesses – and cash when appropriate – to outperform its benchmark. Branded as “Montgomery Global” in Australia to reflect a key.

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Our Montaka Active Extension strategy strives for maximised return over the long-term. Owning the Montaka long portfolio typically scaled up to approximately 130 percent - and the Montaka short portfolio typically scaled down to approximately 30 percent – this strategy results in a net market exposure of approximately 100 percent most of the time.

Our Montaka variable net strategy strives for significant downside protection – but with minimal upside reduction. Focused on owning the world’s great and growing businesses when they are undervalued, while managing a portfolio of short positions in businesses that are deteriorating, misperceived, and overvalued, this strategy is our flagship long-short

Our Montgomery Global strategy strives to act as a core, high conviction, global portfolio holding. Consistent with the long portfolios in our Montaka strategies, this offering is focused on owning the world’s high quality, undervalued businesses – and cash when appropriate – to outperform its benchmark. Branded as “Montgomery Global” in Australia to reflect a key.