Update from the PM – January 2026

It’s been an extraordinary start to the year for global investors. We’ve had an armed US intervention in Venezuela, a serious rift in NATO over Trump’s desire to own Greenland, a historic spike in Japanese bond yields, and a precious metals bubble build and burst. And it’s only February!

In this quarterly letter excerpt, ‘State of the Union: AI, resource competition and inequality increase geopolitical instability‘ Andy reflects on the major structural shifts in the global environment in 2025 – from energy to politics to AI – and how they inform our portfolio positioning for 2026 and beyond.

AI continues to sit at the heart of many of today’s important global trends. For those who may have missed it, we’re pleased to re-share Montaka’s recent whitepaper: The AI Bubble Debate: Why Investors Should Re-Examine the Evidence.

As we start 2026, earnings season is already upon us, and we have seen the dynamic we observed late last year continue: strong news but mixed stock price reactions. Enterprise software companies – like Salesforce and ServiceNow – have have experienced particularly sharp stock price declines. But does agentic AI really spell the end of enterprise software? 

In this month’s Spotlight Series podcast, Montaka’s Director of Research, Amit Nath, joins Andy to discuss the enterprise software downturn. We shine a light on what we think the market is misunderstanding – namely the value of distribution and orchestration within the enterprise. Take a listen to hear our differentiated view based on our research to date.