Beware: the dangers of dollar-denominated debt
Every day we are presented with a myriad of economic statistics that can drown all but the most discerning of readers. Occasionally, however, we see one number that is so important and so significant in terms of potential future implications that it is worth pausing for some reflection. A few weeks ago, The Wall Street […]
The Healthcare Dilemma
In 2013, the U.S. spent a whopping 17.4% of GDP on healthcare, more than any other high-income country. The magnitude of U.S. health expenditure is a highly-public, highly-politicized issue, yet few can elucidate why U.S. health spend diverges dramatically from other high-income nations. It is worth trying to understand the cause of this difference and […]
Harvard looking for short-sellers
A couple of weeks ago, the Financial Times published an article highlighting the cautiousness Harvard’s $38 billion endowment fund was now exercising with respect to its outlook for global financial markets. It’s perhaps little wonder. Take a look at the table below circulated by economic observer, Cullen Roche, last month. Every single major asset class […]
It’s a tough time for free-to-air TV
In this column, published in the Herald Sun, Andrew Macken observes some headwinds in the recently filed annual results of Seven West Media. Read here.
Are emerging markets taking too much credit?
Occasionally we see a chart that makes us really stop and take note. The chart below, published by JP Morgan and sourced from the Bank of International Settlements, illustrates the level of credit extended to the non-financial corporate sectors of developed markets (“DM”) versus emerging markets (“EM”) over time. Expressed as a percentage of GDP, […]
Is Glencore in a precarious position?
The story of Glencore, the Swiss-based commodity producer and trader, is a fascinating one. Originally founded in 1974 by Marc Rich, as Marc Rich & Co, the company was bought out by management (including current CEO and major shareholder, Ivan Glasenberg) in 1994 following an internal dispute. Wishing to rid itself of an association to […]
Top strategies for investing in Asia
In this column, published by the Australian Financial Review, Montaka’s Christopher Demasi comments on the demand for smartphones in emerging markets. Read here.
Make no mistake, there is a problem in the Chinese banking system
This report summarises a number of the key insights and analyses we use to support our strong hypothesis that there is a problem in the Chinese banking system and credit quality is deteriorating rapidly. We make the following key observations: Credit quality is clearly deteriorating – particularly in the corporate sector. The deterioration in credit […]
To go back in time…
I was recently asked when the best time to start a new fund might have been. Not that most fund managers really have control over this, however, if I could go back in time, around 1988 would be a good place to start. Immediately you might think my answer has something to do with the […]
Chinese currency devaluation – what it signals
On August 11, China’s central bank announced the largest one-day devaluation of its currency in two decades, reducing its target level by 1.9% against the USD. We believe this development is drastic and is negative for two key reasons: The devaluation is the clearest signal yet that the Chinese economy is deteriorating – and likely […]