When is the Top of the Cycle Really the Top?
Forecasting peaks of cycles is notoriously difficult, and while it often feels like we’re reaching the top of the longest expansion period in history, evidence suggests there is still plenty of room to grow. Equity market tops are often associated with euphoria and overconfidence, when otherwise risk-averse investors finally succumb and buy equities or the […]
As the range gets wider, investing gets harder
There are lots of things that could happen; but only one thing that will happen. This is one of the better articulations out there of the concept of risk. Understanding risk is at the core of any investment because substantially all investments could result in a range of possible outcomes. Sometimes that range is narrow […]
