Update from the PM – December 2025

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– Andrew Macken

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You would have no doubt noticed that in November, there was a big return of volatility.

In less than two weeks, the price of Bitcoin declined by more than 20%, while the S&P 500 drew down by approximately 5%. We also observed significant sector dispersion in November, with Technology down by more than 4%, while Healthcare and Energy increased by more than 5%. 

Although they are never comfortable to experience, we are accustomed to these periods, and remain focused on the long-term opportunities of Montaka’s advantaged investee companies.

Alphabet, one of Montaka’s largest portfolio investments, was a stand-out performer in November, surging 14% in the month. This followed the release of Gemini 3, which really is something special. The AI model can solve complex tasks across multiple information types like text, images, video and code, and can even ‘think in pictures’ – producing internal draft visuals that help it iterate toward more accurate final outputs.

You can see the step-change in the problem-solving capability of Gemini in the chart above, which shows its (world-leading) accuracy in the ‘ARC-AGI-2’ challenge – one of the world’s most famous and difficult abstract reasoning benchmarks.

Despite these impressive developments, numerous recent headlines are screaming that AI is in a bubble.

In this month’s Spotlight Series podcast, Andy sits down with Amit to discuss Alphabet and the other traditional hyperscale cloud providers in light of these bubble fears.

Our discussion also offers a preview of an upcoming Montaka whitepaper, in which we deconstruct the popular “bubble” thesis into its key premises and assess each in turn. (Look out for this whitepaper over the coming weeks!)

In LVMH & the Curious Case of Veblen Goods, Lachlan shares a fascinating story from his recent research interview with a prominent Ferrari collector. It highlights the concept of ‘Veblen goods’ for which demand increases as prices increase. This dynamic is one of the reasons why Montaka owns luxury giant, LVMH.

Finally, in Beyond stock picking: The 3 big ideas that underpin Montaka’s portfolio construction, Andy shares the three foundational ideas that inform the design of Montaka’s portfolio. Regular readers will already know that we run a highly concentrated portfolio of advantaged undervalued businesses. But this essay looks beyond stock picking to the deeper underlying principles of our portfolio construction.

 

 

Sincerely,

Andrew Macken 

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Podcast: Join the Montaka Global Investments team on Spotify as we share real-time examples and investing tips that govern our stockpicks. Click below to listen. Alternatively, click on this link: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/montaka

 

 

 

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