Europe looking good in 2018
We were recently asked by a client what our outlook was for European equities in the 2018 calendar year. The short answer is that we are in the business of picking stocks, not aggregated regional indices. This answer, of course, is obviously not particularly helpful, so we also tried to draw some sensible conclusions from […]
The forgotten moral hazards
“Moral hazard” are two words that used to be thrown around a lot. When the global financial crisis hit in 2008, the US government was busy bailing out banks and other financial institutions. But it was only the really big ones, deemed “too big to fail”, that were lucky enough to receive taxpayer aid. This […]
Introduction to the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis
The second best book that I read in 2017 was Professor Andrew Lo’s Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought. Adaptive Markets is mandatory reading for any serious professional who studies financial markets. It shines a light on many of the obvious flaws of the prevailing market philosophies out there. The Efficient Market […]
Sky Business with Carson Scott featuring Andrew Macken: 10 January 2018
Andrew joined Carson Scott on Trading Day Live Sky Business to discuss global markets. Which businesses are being structurally challenged by Amazon?
Scenarios for a Chinese financial crisis
It is no secret that China’s credit bubble is the largest in the world today, and one which poses the greatest systemic risk to global financial stability. With the quinquennial Chinese Communist Party congress concluded and the veneer of stability no longer required, it is an opportune time to consider how China’s credit growth might […]
Higher rates = negative government stimulus
Last week we wrote about a near-term bullish potential scenario for the US economy. This scenario is based on a confluence of long-term and short-term trends. As we wrote: From a longer-term perspective, we note that the health of the US consumer has improved significantly over recent years. And this is important for consumption – […]
Same-store sales numbers aren’t always what they seem
Same-store sales growth is one of the most important metrics for evaluating restaurants and retailers. Although widely reported by companies in these industries, and followed closely by analysts and investors, this metric can be manipulated in ways that may distort the underlying performance of the company’s stores.
Do not lose sight of the big picture
With so much noise coming in on a daily basis, it is sometimes hard for investors to keep a clear mind. Whether it’s distractions from President Trump, fears of the Fed, missiles launched from North Korea, the Brexit negotiations, the Qatar blockade or rumblings of a Chinese (and Australian) property bubble, investors could be forgiven […]
Understanding the mantra: look for sustainable returns
In this column published in the ASA magazine, Andrew Macken discusses the Australian banking sector and several promising global trends. Read here.
The Decline of Cash
The Montaka team is constantly scouting for longer term technological shifts that may produce opportunities on either the long or short side of the portfolio. One such inexorable trend is the move toward cashless transactions, in place of traditional cash-based payments. Despite being the predominant way of transacting for centuries, cash usage has been in […]