The investing world has changed (again)
What a difference a few weeks makes. Throughout the months of May and June, global inflation expectations fell suddenly, dragging down global bond yields. The fall coincided with a break-down in the talks between US and Chinese trade negotiators as well as an increase in US tariffs on Chinese imports. Market-implied 10YR inflation expectations Source: […]
The contentious state of US-China relations
Last month, Morgan Stanley hosted its China BEST conference in New York and the topic du jour was, of course, the current state of the US-China relationship. Despite daily news headlines addressing the “trade war,” keen market observers have likely deduced by now that underlying the US-China tension is not trade or even economic policy, […]
Don’t Be the Greater Fool
Beyond Meat (Nasdaq: BYND) has delivered sizzling returns for investors, making it one of the best performing IPOs of 2019. Benefiting from secular tailwinds in the plant-based meat market, BYND has a large longer term revenue opportunity and is already growing rapidly. But is Beyond Meat a good investment? BYND sells plant-based meat substitutes that […]
Trade War: How Did We Get Here?
Given the seemingly endless stream of headlines regarding the U.S. / China trade war, we thought it may be useful to take stock and reflect on the timeline of developments to date. While it appears the situation has descended into an increasingly unsolvable confrontation, as Andrew discussed in a recent blog, U.S. President Donald Trump’s […]
Does Australia control its destiny?
Last month, there was probably no one more surprised than Australian Prime Minister, Scott Morrison – or “ScoMo” – to which he is commonly referred. ScoMo had just won a decisive victory in Australia’s general election against an opponent that was the short-odds favourite in the betting markets.
The Cresting U.S. Tax Tailwind
U.S. law makers delivered one of the most powerful tailwinds to corporate profitability in many decades by implementing the “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act” (TCJA) which commenced at the start of 2018. While the centrepiece of the legislation was the headline reduction to the statutory tax rate from 35% to 21%, there were several other changes that […]
Power to the US Consumer
Amidst the backdrop of a ten-year economic expansion, recent indicators of a softening in US consumer spending do not feel unreasonable. However, when breaking down the fundamentals of the US consumer, whose spending drives the aggregate economy, they appear as strong as ever. GDP is aggregate economic demand, defined as the total value of everything […]
Around the world in six charts
As 2019 is now well and truly underway, we thought it was timely to provide a quick summary of our near-term global economic observations. As readers will know all too well, at Montaka we pay close attention to global macro trends, despite seeing ourselves primarily as bottom-up investors. While every stock thesis – both long […]
What does a trade war “win” look like?
President Trump’s decision on Sunday to extend the March 1st deadline for a trade deal between the US and China was interpreted favourably by investors as an indication that progress was being made on the discordant trade negotiations which have whipsawed global equity markets over the last several months. But to redress the full list of […]
Is an EU/China trade war next?
At Montaka, we believe there are five major forces that will significantly shape investment returns over the coming decades. One of these relates to the “New World Order” that is currently emerging. Whether it’s the uprooting of norms by President Trump, the UK’s decision to leave the EU, China’s rise as a state-dominated economy, or […]
