Draining an Ocean of Liquidity
An abrupt change in macro liquidity may be occurring with the potential for a vacuum, as the U.S. Federal Reserve slows its bond buying programs just as the U.S. Treasury accelerates issuance. This may mean the liquidity tide created when the Fed commenced it’s “unlimited” purchase program, would start going out to sea, and possibly leave behind more organic price discovery in markets.
Why Shorting Pie in the Sky Is Dangerous
While overvaluation is a necessary component to a great short, it alone is insufficient to tilt the likelihood of the short position working out in your favor. The danger of shorting such stocks is the immense damage that can be done in the interim from bullish investors having a set of conditions that allows them to remain bullish.
Earnings Still Matter
Despite the hindered economic and business activity round the world, the equity markets have continued to rise. This superficially suggests that the equity market does not seem to care about earnings – yet. History shows that in the long run earnings will still matter.
What is our “variant perception” to the market?
As equity markets continue to rise, investors are slowly getting nervous about the upside potential from current levels over the short and medium terms. We at Montaka do see downside risks in equity markets near-term.
Can a cyclical switch catalyze a structural shift?
With consumer behaviors rapidly evolving in a COVID-19 world, TV advertising is under severe pressure from falling audiences, lack of sports and an increasing number of ad-free, direct-to-consumer options for video services. As we saw in the wake of the 2008/2009 recession, we may again be on the edge of witnessing the acceleration of structural shifts, underlying the inherent cyclicality of the advertising industry.
When counterfactuals are hidden and histories alternative
As Australia sets to emerge from this once-in-a-century pandemic, some of us do wonder was it all worth it? If COVID-19 was not as bad as the forecasters led us to believe, did we need to impair the economy the way we did?
All You Need to Know
At the weekend Warren Buffett led the annual shareholder meeting for Berkshire Hathaway, the company that he has led for more than half a century. This year, however, the coronavirus pandemic necessitated major changes to the program. Here are the key excerpts from his address.
Reporting Season Roundup
Every quarter when reporting season rolls around, there are always new insights gleaned that can provide a broader read-through on emerging trends. Perhaps with the uncertainty from the COVID-19 (C19) pandemic, this reporting season will be watched for clues more eagerly than usual. We will provide some interesting tidbits which give some colour around how companies are faring in today’s uncertain environment.
Will e-sports have its COVID-19 moment too?
Stay-at-home orders have been a boon for video streaming and video gaming. With traditional sports suspended and people stuck indoors, e-sports is having its turn in the limelight. Will e-sports finally become the opportunity it was once touted to be, or will it once again be relegated to the sidelines post the coronavirus?
The Problems with Testing
While “testing, testing, testing” has become the mantra for public health experts looking to contain the spread of coronavirus, and politicians and business leaders wanting to get workers back to work, it is far from a panacea for the pandemic and its adverse economic consequences.