Showing a clear sensitivity to wages
Australian investors that were able to catch our recent national roadshow (video here) will know that we position Montaka’s long and short portfolios to take advantage of medium-term trends we are observing in the global economy. We talked about a short position in Montaka’s portfolio called Regis Corporation (NYSE: RGS) – a network of around […]
A cautionary tale about a Chinese bank
There once was a bank called Minsheng. Minsheng used to be an investor’s dream: growing earnings consistently above 30% per annum, benefiting from the boom that was the Chinese economy. But times have become tougher for Minsheng of late: Minsheng just printed its first year-on-year decline in pre-tax profit since the global financial crisis. You […]
What makes a great short? (Part II)
To outperform in investing, one needs to take a different view to the market; and that view needs to be right. So at the very least, one needs to understand where they are different to the market; and why they believe they are right. The price of a stock is effectively a numerical representation of […]
The Fate of the U.S. Mail Industry – Sign, Sealed, Delivered?
Following on from a recent blog post on what makes a great short, we will discuss the Thematics / Structural Declines component of the Montaka short framework, using a real-life example. As a quick recap, structural declines refer to changes in industries which are non-cyclical in nature and typically occur over long periods of time. […]
What makes a great short? (Part I)
In this four-part series, we will examine in detail the four specific characteristics that we think make an attractive short. The first of the four specific characteristics that we think make an attractive short candidate we call: Thematics or Structural Declines. Here, we are referring to multi-year, structural changes that we see happening – typically […]
Accounting for the GAAP in reported earnings
The importance of accounting cannot be overstated in the eyes of the Montaka research team. Accounting is the lens through which the underlying economics of a business are viewed. If this lens is distorted, the perception of a business’ health will be somewhat distorted too. One of the four characteristics we look for in an […]
Teradata: how did it get here?
Teradata is a pioneer and global leader in providing high end data warehouse and analytics technology solutions to large enterprises. But the industry landscape has been changing and Teradata has failed to keep pace. The likely outcome is that Teradata’s future earnings will be pressured beyond current expectations. Consequently, the Montaka Global Fund maintains a […]
Accounting for the Unholy Trinity
Trinity Industries (NYSE: TRN) is a U.S.-based manufacturer of freight and tank railcars; as well as a lessor of railcars. TRN benefited immensely from the crude-by-rail boom in North America over the last five years, given it was the largest supplier of tank railcars to that market. The Company’s revenues increased at an average rate […]
Why we are drowning in oil
It seems every second headline these days is about oil. Whether it’s the oil price, oil inventories or any comment from any official from any oil producing nation. The world is watching with extreme intensity, looking for any indication that the global oversupply of oil is starting to abate. It’s not. The following are a […]
Would you listen to a CEO?
So often we observe sell-side analysts and external investors basing a large part of their investment theses on the sentiment and intentions offered by the senior management team of the companies in which they are investing. We caution such an approach. All too often, CEOs of publicly listed companies are communicating a well-crafted, well-intended message […]
