What makes a great short? (Part III)
The third (of four) characteristic that we think makes an attractive short is called Asymmetries. (For a review of the first characteristic, Thematics / Structural Declines, click here; and the second, Divergent Expectations, here). Asymmetries are specific drivers of asymmetric risks that can result in a stock price collapsing rapidly over a short period of […]
Showing a clear sensitivity to wages
Australian investors that were able to catch our recent national roadshow (video here) will know that we position Montaka’s long and short portfolios to take advantage of medium-term trends we are observing in the global economy. We talked about a short position in Montaka’s portfolio called Regis Corporation (NYSE: RGS) – a network of around […]
Inspired by Insperity
During our recent National Roadshow (a video of which can be viewed here), we discussed how Montaka’s portfolios are positioned to take advantage of observations we are making with respect to global economic drivers that affect your equity returns. We discussed a business called Insperity (NYSE: NSP). Now, Insperity has been around for about 30 […]
Market Returns Likely Lower for the Long Term
We believe it is virtually impossible to predict the size, shape and pattern of returns that markets will deliver in the future. At the same time, we believe that equity returns face significant headwinds over the coming decades compared to recent decades and consequently are likely (though not necessarily certain) to be much lower. It […]
What makes a great short? (Part II)
To outperform in investing, one needs to take a different view to the market; and that view needs to be right. So at the very least, one needs to understand where they are different to the market; and why they believe they are right. The price of a stock is effectively a numerical representation of […]
What makes Montaka different?
This blog post comes to you from Midtown Manhattan in New York City. It has been a noteworthy week in the Big Apple. Tuesday was voting-day for the New York Primaries. For those less well-versed in US politics, the Primaries are the election processes run by both the Democratic and Republican Parties to determine who […]
The Fate of the U.S. Mail Industry – Sign, Sealed, Delivered?
Following on from a recent blog post on what makes a great short, we will discuss the Thematics / Structural Declines component of the Montaka short framework, using a real-life example. As a quick recap, structural declines refer to changes in industries which are non-cyclical in nature and typically occur over long periods of time. […]
Accounting for the Unholy Trinity
Trinity Industries (NYSE: TRN) is a U.S.-based manufacturer of freight and tank railcars; as well as a lessor of railcars. TRN benefited immensely from the crude-by-rail boom in North America over the last five years, given it was the largest supplier of tank railcars to that market. The Company’s revenues increased at an average rate […]
Why we are drowning in oil
It seems every second headline these days is about oil. Whether it’s the oil price, oil inventories or any comment from any official from any oil producing nation. The world is watching with extreme intensity, looking for any indication that the global oversupply of oil is starting to abate. It’s not. The following are a […]
What is our favourite recession-proof business?
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (Nasdaq: TTWO) is a developer and publisher of video game content for console systems such as the PS4, Xbox One and Nintendo’s Wii; handheld gaming systems such as Sony’s PSP; and personal computers, including smartphones and tablets. The Company is perhaps best recognized as the developer of the Grand Theft Auto […]
